Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-Jake Paul's fight vs. Nate Diaz: Prediction as oddsmakers predict mismatch

The Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Centerfight between Jake Paul and Nate Diaz Saturday night will not go down as one of the greatest in boxing history. But regardless of the outcome, it’s a testament to Paul’s rise.

Less than four years ago he made his boxing debut against fellow YouTube celebrity AnEsonGib. Now he’s a solid favorite against Diaz, the UFC stalwart who will be making his pro boxing debut in a bout scheduled for 10 rounds at 185 pounds.

Paul (6-1 with 4 KOs) has gone from sideshow to one of the top draws in combat sports.

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Ringside seats are priced for up to $5,000 in what is expected to be a near-sellout at American Airlines Center, the 20,000-seat venue and home of the Dallas Mavericks and Stars.

The fight could generate in excess of $30 million, with Paul predicting 500,000 pay-per-view buys at $59.99 piece on DAZN. The full fight card starts at 8 p.m. ET and is also available on ESPN+ PPV.

The days of being paired up against the likes of retired NBA All-Star Nate Robinson, on the undercard of the Mike Tyson-Roy Jones Jr. exhibition match, are long gone.

Now Paul calls the shots.

Could Paul vs. Diaz be a decent fight?

Oddsmakers are suggesting it could be a mismatch. Paul is as much as a -400 favorite, meaning a bettor will have to wager $400 on him to win $100.

Paul, 26, is more than a decade younger than Diaz, 38. He's also bigger and stronger, having scored brutal knockout victories against Robinson and former UFC champion Tyron Woodley and having knocked down each of his opponents.

But Paul lost his last fight, a split decision against Tommy Fury. Fury is far bigger and stronger than Diaz, but he did show Paul can be outboxed.

Diaz is a third-degree black belt in Jiu Jitsu but the grappling skills will be of no value Saturday night. However, he could prove to be more fluid in the ring and Diaz distinguished himself in the UFC for his striking ability.

In 2016, he bloodied Conor McGregor in both a victory and in their rematch.

But now Diaz will be lacing 10-ounce boxing gloves instead of the four-ounce UFC gloves.

Originally, the fight was scheduled for eight rounds. But Diaz persuaded Paul to make it a 10-round bout, and Diaz is likely hoping to turn the showdown into a fight of endurance.

How did Nate Diaz end up here?

The prospect of Diaz fighting Paul once seemed laughable. After all, Diaz (22-13 with 5 KOs in MMA) was an established name in combat sports when Paul was facing underwhelming opponents and begging to fight the likes of, well, Diaz.

Beyond that, would UFC president Dana White allow Diaz to take the fight?

That became a non-issue in November when he fought out of his contract and became a free agent.

On Thursday, Diaz said he intends to return to the UFC. But not before this payday.

Prediction for the Paul-Diaz fight

Paul has overhauled his team after the setback against Fury.

Most significantly, he cut ties with trainer BJ Flores and brought in Shane Mosley, the former world champion who worked with Paul in the YouTube celebrity’s pro debut in 2019.

He also hired Larry Wade, a seasoned boxing coach who has overseen the strength and conditioning program. Paul says he’s in the best shape of his boxing career.

There appears to be no hard feeling between Paul and Flores, who helped develop Paul into a legitimate boxer and will be in Dallas for the fight.

“My prediction is the fight will not go past four rounds because Nate is not going to have the type of defense to keep Jake off of him,’’ Flores said, “and the more aggressive he is, the worse it’s going to be for him.

“I think Nate’s going to be aggressive, he’s going to have to be aggressive, and that’s going to play right into Jake.’’